In light of the COVID-19 crisis, NSCA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl updates his Economic Outlook 2020 for Integrators forecast.
A lot has changed since NSCA’s 22nd annual Business & Leadership Conference (BLC), held Feb. 26-28, when NSCA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl delivered his keynote: Economic Outlook 2020 for Integrators.
At that time, when we were gathered in Texas, the industry seemed to be brimming with confidence. Now, however, in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy and the integration market are facing unprecedented challenges that could impact your business for months and even beyond.
We have financial data about the impact of this crisis, and we must understand what it really means for our industry. The COVID-19 crisis has created the need to reassess everything we projected for 2020.
Dr. Kuehl conducted a follow-up forecast, Revised Economic Outlook 2020 for Integrators, to help NSCA members get a better handle on the big questions:
- Where is this COVID-19 crisis heading?
- How long could the economic recovery take?
- What will the impact be on the supply chain?
- What are the leading indicators and trends to keep an eye on?
- How we should adapt to the new normal?
This high-level economic overview is an immediate follow-up to Dr. Kuehl’s BLC presentation. He factors in COVID-19’s impact on the integration market and the economy, and regroups and re-assesses the short- and long-term outlooks.
NSCA Staff Takeaways from the Revised Economic Outlook 2020 for Integrators
- Regarding government assistance: If you hang onto your workforce, then you can get help. If you don’t hang onto your workforce until roughly July, then you can’t get as much help.
- It’s important to continually re-assess. What we know about COVID-19’s impact on the population and economy is changing daily.
- The supply chain, after suffering an initial crash, is starting to make a comeback.
- The United States was late in getting serious about social distancing; to a certain degree we’re suffering the consequences.
- COVID-19 comparisons to the flu aren’t accurate. It spreads quicker, more people are hospitalized, and the fatality rate is higher. But it’s also not “the plague.”
- Central banks have done what they can and pushed money into the system, but that won’t work if there isn’t anywhere to spend it.
- After the COVID-19 impact peaks (it’s looking like late April or May), there will be an economic reboot. If that happens in May, we could avoid a recession.
- Recovery means getting back to 2% growth.
- The No. 1 challenge of working from home is preserving workplace culture and a team atmosphere.
- Recovery will come in three phases: 1) offices will open; 2) retailers will open; 3) crowd-oriented activities, such as sports and concerts, will open.
- The integration market should expect a boost; there will be more needs for phones, videoconferencing, security, etc.
Dr. Kuehl digs into each of these points and more in his pointed presentation.